Five Takeaways: College Football Playoff Second Round
Ohio State looks like the best team left in the field + what winning a title would mean for each of the coaches left.
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Five Takeaways: College Football Playoff Second Round
1. One head coach is about to make the leap
Nick Saban's retirement didn't just leave a void in college football in terms of pure icon status - it sapped the game of the majority of its championship pedigree. Coupled with Jim Harbaugh bolting to the NFL, Saban's departure left just Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney as the only current college head coaches who've won national championships. With both knocked out of the playoff, we're about to have new blood at the top of the sport in terms of winning it all. One of Ryan Day, James Franklin, Steve Sarkisian, or Marcus Freeman is about to be the king of the hill. Here's what I think winning the title would mean for each:
Ryan Day: I've been as harsh on Day as anyone, but even I'll acknowledge that winning the next two games would be his ultimate validation as Ohio State's Head Coach. After smashing Tennessee in the first round, the Buckeyes handed top-ranked Oregon one of the most comprehensive big-game beatdowns in recent memory, and look like the clear-cut best team remaining. The way they're playing right now makes the Michigan thing even more bizarre, but it ultimately may prove to be the catalyst that the Buckeyes needed to reach their full potential. (More on that thought in a second.)
James Franklin: Even more than Day, Franklin's been the poster child for not being able to win the big one. Whether you think Penn State got an easy draw or not, he's got two playoff wins under his belt now, and has the Nittany Lions just two more away from their first national title since 1986. I can't lie to you: the idea of a Franklin title is so ludicrous to me that I'm having a hard time fathoming it, but it would validate all the years Penn State fans talked about how they just needed a chance with an expanded playoff to make some noise.
Steve Sarkisian: I don't know if this means anything in the grand scheme of things, but Sarkisian is the only coach on this list who's been on national title-winning staff (2020 Alabama). Getting it done in his 11th year as the top guy would be a nice piece of evidence for head coaches everywhere that sometimes you have to take the lumps of getting fired somewhere else to ultimately find who you are as a leader of a program. There's something different about winning it all at Texas, but doing it in the program's first season in the SEC? If you thought it was annoying how the Longhorns threw their weight around the college football landscape before, you haven't seen shit yet if they pull this off.
Marcus Freeman: If I'm going to mention what winning at Texas means, what do I even say about winning a national title at Notre Dame? Freeman is the least experienced coach of the four left, but this current run backs up the notion people in the coaching world had a few years ago of him being the profession's next big star. Notre Dame beat Georgia and Kirby Smart at their own game, picking up the biggest win of Freeman's young career. The Irish have only played one game within seven points (Louisville) in the 12 since losing to Northern Illinois, which speaks volumes to level Freeman has them locked in at. If they win their next two, he becomes the most visible star in the college football coaching ranks.
2. Ohio State is peaking at the right time
I'm a big believer in the idea that certain teams need to lose to get their act together. It's hard not to think Ohio State's two losses did exactly that for them, just in different ways. After losing to Oregon in October, Ryan Day talked about having to "start from scratch" and "re-engineer" the defense. In the eight games since, they've given up just 12.5 points per game, most notably putting the high-flying offenses of Indiana and Oregon into headlocks. The Buckeyes harassed the Ducks to the tune of eight sacks, 13 tackles for loss, and -23 yards rushing in the Rose Bowl. (Even if you take out Dillon Gabriel's -43 yards that mostly came on sacks, the Ducks got just 40 yards on 16 attempts.) They're not just playing at the highest level in the country - they're bullying opponents with their physicality:
Having to re-engineer your defense mid-season would be a nightmare for most teams, but defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, his staff, and their players have shown what it looks like when you take an honest look in the mirror and finally start playing to your strengths as a unit.
If the Oregon loss was the major inflection point for Ohio State's defense, the debacle against Michigan looks to be the moment that not only changed the offense, but might alter the trajectory of Day's career. We don't need to re-litigate what happened that day, but they've now put up 40-plus on both Tennessee and Oregon in the two games since with a very simple formula - Throw the damn ball to Jeremiah Smith:
Smith has 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns in two playoff games after barely getting targeted in the second half of the Michigan game. His increased involvement is the main element to the Buckeyes' overall explosion offensively. They averaged almost 10 yards per play before garbage time against Oregon, relying on their all-world receivers to toast the Ducks' secondary, while also getting dots like this from QB Will Howard:
Playing to their strengths out wide has led to more room for backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, who are finally being used less as pounding runners and more like home-run hitters:
I'd be remiss to not give some credit to their re-shuffled offensive line, too. They've been put through the ringer all year, and have responded with their two best performances in the playoff.
In all, credit has to go to Ryan Day. Many people (including myself) left Ohio State's title dreams for dead after the Michigan game. A month later, they look like the clear best team left in the field based off the adjustments they've made after each loss. We'll see if they can finish the job, but it feels like they're setting a blueprint for how top teams may approach playing in the expanded playoff era going forward. It's been impressive to see how they've rebounded and reached a new gear that may leave them at the top of the college football world in a few weeks.
Maybe I'll have some more in-depth thoughts on Oregon after all the dust settles, but I think my guy Cyrus Smith gave some good perspective on how Ducks fans may feel after their 13-1 season in the new Big Ten: